Forecast for Ike downgraded to a 2: Still a hurricane but no 'major' event expected

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS

PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE

WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE

THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE

MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE

PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR

LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE

ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF

MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE

NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT

NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH

CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE

SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND

UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS

FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE

INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE

TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW

ACROSS THE GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE

FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO

A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE

LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING

LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING

THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND

ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT

ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT

12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT

24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT

36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT

48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT

72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT

96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN