Tropical storm warning remains in effect for all of Panhandle

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS

NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE

OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS

KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A

PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY

COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24

HOURS.

THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT

4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN

UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN

SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A

GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST

TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS

EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY

DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL

AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 29.8N 83.2W 40 KT

12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.1W 40 KT

24HR VT 23/1800Z 30.2N 85.9W 35 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 26/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 91.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Storm Warning

TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1225 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

FLZ008-012-014-222300-
/O.UPG.KTAE.TR.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KTAE.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.TI.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080824T0000Z/
COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-
1125 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN EASTWARD.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

COASTAL WALTON...BAY...GULF.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER NORTH FLORIDA TODAY
APPROACHING THE WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY AND NEARING THE WATERS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. WHILE FAY MAY ONLY BE A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM AS IT NEARS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE TO WEAKER MOBILE HOMES. SECURE
LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS...LIKE GARBAGE CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE. THESE
ITEMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MOVED BY THE WIND AND COULD
CAUSE DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DURING THE STORM.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF CONSIDERABLE FLOODING FROM THIS
STORM. IF YOU LIVE IN A LOW LYING AREA MAKE PREPARATIONS TO MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND. IF NECESSARY...SECURE SANDBAGS TO PROTECT YOUR
PROPERTY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AT THIS TIME IS NOT EXPECTED. TIDES WILL
LIKELY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS FAY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HERE ARE SOME TIDE TIMES FROM SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

PANAMA CITY AT SAINT ANDREWS BAY...

FRIDAY...12:20 PM CDT...LOW TIDE.

SATURDAY...2:41 AM CDT...HIGH TIDE...207 PM CDT...LOW TIDE.

DESTIN

FRIDAY...12:57 PM CDT...LOW TIDE.

SATURDAY...305 AM CDT...HIGH TIDE...244 PM CDT...LOW TIDE.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FAY WILL PRODUCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES WEST. THESE WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR DAMAGE TO WEAKER MOBILE HOMES. SOME
POWER POLES OR ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...CREATING
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES.

WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...NOW IS THE TIME TO
PROTECT YOUR PROPERTY BY SECURING LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT MAY BE
PICKED UP BY THE WIND.

...INLAND FLOODING...

SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE DOMINANT THREAT FROM
TROPICAL STORM FAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 6 TO 8 INCHES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MODERATE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS. RIVERINE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL BIG BEND.

...TORNADOES...

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS FAY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$