Approaching storm could be worse than Ida, forecasters say

A powerful winter storm will blast across Northwest Florida on Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing torrential rains, gale-force winds and storm surges comparable to a tropical storm.

Weather forecasters expect the cyclone, which is taking shape off the Texas coast, to produce rainfall totals as high as 8 inches in some parts of the Panhandle. Winds along the coast could gust to 40 mph, and a 5-foot storm tidal surge in the Pensacola area is possible.

The storm could be “a little bit worse than what we saw with Ida,” said Jason Beaman, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Mobile, Ala. He expects it to present a more significant severe weather threat than the late-season hurricane.

“Along the coast, beginning tomorrow evening and lasting through Wednesday, wind gusts of 40 mph are possible,” Beaman said. Inland the winds could be as high as 30 mph.

He also cautioned that southerly winds and a natural high-tide cycle could put water as high as 5 feet above normal on the beaches near Pensacola, with storm tides of 2 to 3 feet in the Destin area.

“Tomorrow will definitely be a bad idea for any boating activities.”

Beaman explained a cold front is moving through Northwest Florida this afternoon and is expected to stall out over the gulf tonight and early Tuesday. Meanwhile, the low off the coast of Texas will follow the frontal boundary eastward, and “that’s going track over our area.” The combination of the front and the low pressure area will produce the nasty weather.

“We’re in our highest spring tide cycle right now,” Beaman said. “Combine that with really strong winds and that’s why we’re concerned about coastal flooding and beach erosion.”

The wind and rain could be comparable to a “low-end tropical storm,” Beaman said, and the tides could be worse. Seas as high as 18 feet are predicted.

Later in the week a mass of cold air will bring the season’s first hard freeze to Northwest Florida, with temperatures expected to plunge into the 20s.