It has a 20 percent chance of development over the next five days.
The National Hurricane Center has issued a special tropical weather outlook for a system that has a low potential to develop into a named storm later this week.
In its 8:30 a.m. update on Monday, the NHC showed a low pressure area currently in the Caribbean Sea, bringing rain across Cuba and the Florida peninsula.
While environmental conditions are expected to be “unfavorable for development” during the next couple of days, some gradual development is possible later this week while the system moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico, according to the NHC.
Forecasters give it a 20 percent chance at development over the next five days.
If it were to become a named storm, it would be Alberto.
John Purdy, lead forecaster with the National Weather Service in Mobile, Ala., said that models varied extensively as to the track and intensity of the storm system.
“Some models take it to south Louisiana, others take it to North Florida,” Purdy said. “I would say it’d probably be more in the Jacksonville area, so there’s really a lot of disparity and a lot of disagreement between the models.”
He said meteorologists have a relatively “low confidence” that the storm will develop into anything substantial, but said they were keeping a watchful eye on it nonetheless.
“If it does go to the west toward Louisiana, we’d be more in the heavy rain area with slightly stronger winds, but if it goes to the east as far by the Jacksonville area, we wouldn’t see much of an impact,” he said. “We’d have our regular scattered showers and thunderstorms.”
Purdy said the potential storm was a good reminder for people to have their hurricane plans in place. Hurricane season starts June 1.