Economic guru to speak to TDC

PANAMA CITY BEACH — The economic guru behind many of the models used for forecasting Northwest Florida development will speak today at a board meeting of the Bay County Tourist Development Council.

Rick Harper, director of the University of West Florida’s Haas Center for Business Research and Economic Development, will talk about future growth trends in Bay County tourism, Harper said Monday.

Much of the focus of his presentation will deal with where bed tax revenues are headed “and where they should have been but for the oil spill,” Harper said. Bed taxes for Bay County took a sharp dip for both July and August this year, falling 14.5 percent and 14.7 percent, respectively, from 2009.

Harper’s economic models have been touted as one of the tools that both Panama City Beach and the TDC will use in filing claims for economic damage from the BP oil spill. Both entities have hired the law firm of Nix, Patterson & Roach to handle the complicated claims procedures.

Harper’s tourism models move beyond a simple difference between 2009 and 2010 revenue numbers, he said. They take into account such intangible factors as what the economy might have looked like if the oil disaster had not occurred, especially with the opening of the new Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport and the introduction of low-cost carrier Southwest Airlines.

Harper said his models use several factors, including the state of the economy of “feeder” areas for Bay County tourism, the county’s lodging capacity and the state of the national economy, which he said was showing improvement over 2008 and 2009.

“All the early indications were that the national economy, the state economy and Bay County were beginning to recover,” Harper said.

In addition to tourism, a Haas Center study on the area economic impact of Gulf Coast Community College was recently used to help develop a new strategic plan for the college. The study, released late last month, showed that the college had a $205 million annual economic impact on Bay, Gulf and Franklin counties.

GCCC president Jim Kerley is also on the TDC agenda today to give an update on GCCC’s new Advanced Technology Center and the prospects for job creation.